When Prophecy Fails: A Social and Psychological Study of a Modern Group That Predicted the Destruction of the World

Other · Leon Festinger, Henry W. Riecken, and Stanley Schachter · 1956

The book examines how committed believers respond to failed predictions and specifies conditions under which disconfirmation may produce renewed conviction and proselytizing. It is a case study and theoretical analysis, not evidence that every believer responds this way.

The disconfirmation introduces an important and painful dissonance. The fact that the predicted events did not occur is dissonant with continuing to believe both the prediction and the remainder of the ideology of which the prediction was the central item.

p. 27

The book examines how committed believers respond to failed predictions and specifies conditions under which disconfirmation may produce renewed conviction and proselytizing. It is a case study and theoretical analysis, not evidence that every believer responds this way. Bearing on the claim: supports. Verification note: Original printing opened. A current University of Minnesota Press page was NOT FOUND; the APA book record and archived original scan were opened.

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